Mashable's series Tech in 2025 explores how the challenges of today will dramatically change the near future.
In 2020, Facebook was a greater force than ever.
As of June 30, a record 2.7 billion people, exactly a third of the Earth's population, logged into the social network at least once a month. A record-breaking 1.8 billion used Facebook at least once a day. Just counting these users, Facebook's population exceeded that of the U.S. and China combined. If you add the approximately 600 million people who don't use Facebook but engage with its subsidiaries (Instagram and WhatsApp), you're looking at an empire rivaling the combined population of the U.S., China, Russia, and all of Europe.
If Facebook were an empire, Mark Zuckerberg would be its "Dictator for Life." Thanks to his ownership of 58 percent of all shareholder votes and the additional 12 percent controlled by his allies, Zuckerberg could maintain control, swaying any vote with a simple click. Not even rising competitors like Snapchat or TikTok could diminish his influence. Not even a substantial advertiser boycott, triggered by Facebook's struggle to combat hate speech, made a significant impact. Their quarterly revenue, announced on July 30, had increased by nearly 12 percent year-on-year.
Given these remarkable achievements, will anything prevent Zuckerberg from further expanding Facebook's dominance by 2025? Here are four possible scenarios for Facebook's future where there is indeed a limit. One such limit became evident on July 29 when Zuckerberg faced congressional scrutiny (though not as long as it should have). A majority of the House's antitrust committee seems poised for regulatory action, as do governments worldwide. The evidence has mounted, and Zuckerberg's own words have contributed to his predicament. Recent polls even suggest that a clear bipartisan majority of American voters supports breaking up tech giants like Facebook by reversing their acquisitions.
History teaches us that fortune can be capricious. The future often holds surprises, especially for leaders who underestimate it. Scenario planning has a history of revealing potential surprises; it helped Shell Oil prepare for the energy crisis of the 1970s ahead of time.
Here's how scenario planning works: You draw two intersecting lines representing significant factors for a company (in Facebook's case, let's use "popularity" and "government regulation"). One end represents "more," while the other signifies "less," creating four quadrants like so:
Image: chris taylor / mashable
This sets the stage for four distinct futures for Facebook. So, what might lie ahead for Facebook in each of these scenarios? Let's speculate.
Scenario 1: Democrats regain the presidency and the Senate in 2021, and they are eager to take action against a CEO who amplified conservative voices and repeatedly refused to challenge Trump's falsehoods. Sen. Elizabeth Warren's plan to break up big tech becomes a legislative priority for the new majority, with Facebook's acquisitions as the prime targets. The FTC and DOJ investigations into Facebook's monopoly power, initiated under Donald Trump, gain momentum under President Joe Biden.
Recognizing the imminent threat, Zuckerberg decides to negotiate a consent decree to avert a potentially protracted antitrust legal battle. This agreement compels him to separate Instagram and WhatsApp as independent companies, allowing each firm to reunite with its disgruntled founders. This move yields substantial financial gains for Facebook, far surpassing the $20 billion it originally paid for these acquisitions a decade earlier. It also serves as a public relations victory, convincing many that Zuckerberg has learned from past mistakes. Commentators raise concerns about the possibility of government overreach. In the 2022 midterm elections, the GOP gains control of the House, in part by stoking fears about "Biden's PC police" telling people what they can or cannot post on Facebook. Zuckerberg's algorithm subtly amplifies this message.
With Washington once again paralyzed, Facebook resumes its acquisition spree. If TikTok isn't available, Zuckerberg sets his sights on emerging Chinese startups, portraying these purchases as patriotic moves that ensure American teenagers use American products. Speculation about Zuckerberg running for president resurfaces, this time suggesting he's considering a bid on the GOP ticket in 2028.
Whether or not Zuckerberg enters politics, Facebook has successfully maintained cordial relations with both sides in Congress. Zuckerberg's wealth is spread among massive super PAC donations, and years later, Facebook reacquires Instagram and WhatsApp through government-approved deals. Commentators draw parallels with AT&T, which reconstituted itself and emerged more powerful after being broken up in 1984. Some future historians debate whether this was Zuckerberg's plan for Facebook all along.
Antitrust regulation is not the only form of government oversight. In a move closely watched worldwide, Australia follows through on its July 2020 threat to compel Facebook and Google to pay media organizations for hosting their journalism on their platforms. The EU adopts a similar approach, imposing the maximum penalty on Facebook in its pending GDPR fine. A portion of the multibillion-Euro fines is allocated to media organizations severely affected by the pandemic.
A wave of post-populist governments worldwide, similar to the Biden administration, recognizes the importance of a robust media in countering Facebook's predatory practices and the proliferation of false information on its platforms. The Fourth Estate thrives again and does not forget how Facebook nearly brought about its downfall. The disgruntled engineers who quit Zuckerberg's company due to his handling of Trump, and who have evidence to support their claims, also contribute to this narrative.
Millions of journalists who lost their jobs in the great "pivot to video" controversy of the late 2010s return to newsrooms, pledging to investigate any Facebook-related controversies they encounter. Eventually, in time for the 2024 presidential election, a new Facebook manipulation scandal emerges, surpassing even the Cambridge Analytica scandal in scope.
The candidate who vows to curtail Facebook's influence wins the election. Prompted by the media, a "Boycott Facebook" movement arises worldwide, led by Generation Z, which abandoned the traditional social network long ago in favor of Twitter, TikTok, Snapchat, and the newly independent Instagram. They exert pressure on advertisers to join the boycott, and this time, it succeeds.
While Facebook doesn't disappear entirely—Messenger alone ensures its continued existence for decades—it fails to gain a foothold in the race for the next major consumer platforms, such as AR glasses. Once its monthly active users drop below one billion, Facebook becomes officially uncool, and this trend appears irreversible. Zuckerberg relinquishes his role as CEO and sells enough shares to make the company's managed decline the problem of a struggling board of directors. He moves on to his next big venture.
Ultimately, Facebook finds a niche in the developing world, much like Friendster did after losing its status as the most popular U.S. social network. Except for one or two countries, Facebook becomes a distant memory, overshadowed by newer, more formidable social media giants.
Scenario 2: In 2016, a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote, but the electoral college, marred by foreign interference campaigns on social media, deadlocks due to a close and chaotic election, and the House's majority of GOP delegations tilts the balance in favor of Trump. A deeply divided populace inches closer to civil unrest. Many demons are unleashed during Trump's second term, with Facebook playing a central role.
Sheryl Sandberg resigns, in solidarity with numerous engineers at the company who fear they've unleashed a monster. Authoritarianism gains ground globally, with Facebook manipulation being a major contributing factor. Rather than denying this reality, Zuckerberg embraces it and builds alliances with populist leaders worldwide. Millions disgusted by his actions leave the platform. Zuckerberg, the ultimate honey badger, remains indifferent.
In Sandberg's absence, Zuckerberg receives counsel from conservative and vengeful Facebook board member Peter Thiel. With this shift, Trump no longer needs to threaten government regulation. Zuckerberg undergoes a transformation and adapts to the new environment. Conservative media outlets like Tucker Carlson's Daily Caller step up their dubious "fact-checking" of liberal viewpoints, and many commentators accuse this practice of being a form of censorship. These articles seldom receive high visibility on the Facebook platform. In contrast to the situation in 2020, the most popular stories on the platform predominantly come from right-leaning sources.
Facebook's user base dwindles as Democrats disengage from the platform. Advertising boycotts start to impact revenue, causing the stock to decline. However, Zuckerberg remains determined to maintain control through his voting shares. To compensate for the lost ad revenue, he leverages his base of MAGA supporters. Trump's regulators largely ignore Facebook's actions.
The humiliation may be worthwhile for Facebook in the long run if its association with Trump causes its bitcoin alternative Libra to be perceived as a government-sanctioned cryptocurrency. Zuckerberg also anticipates that Trump may abandon "very unfair" Twitter in favor of making all his statements exclusively on Facebook. There could also be an announcement of support for a potential cryptocurrency venture tailored to Trump's liking: Facebook Casino.
Capitalizing on the 2020 election results to demonstrate its compatibility with democratic societies, Facebook launches a significant public relations effort. Sheryl Sandberg assumes the role of CEO and vows to chart a new course, although Zuckerberg maintains his voting shares and is rumored to continue influencing behind the scenes.
However, Sandberg's tenure is not without exceptions. In a lengthy televised confession, Zuckerberg, with Priscilla by his side, reveals how Trump had pressured him with investigations during their secret dinner in 2019. This disclosure fuels one of many post-presidential Trump scandals. Consequently, the regulation of social media is perceived as a Trumpian tactic. President Biden, positioning himself as the opposite of his predecessor, refrains from pursuing antitrust regulation, especially after Sandberg promises that WhatsApp and Instagram will operate independently for the next decade. Facebook, in an attempt to appease the media, independently compensates users for each click on a news story. While it falls short of what media organizations would have received under the Australian law (which was never passed), it's sufficient to keep them afloat. Facebook becomes to journalists what Spotify is to musicians: stingy but indispensable.
This renewed atmosphere allows Facebook to acquire TikTok without regulatory obstacles. Sandberg emphasizes the patriotic and security aspects of the deal. Facebook introduces new privacy tools with great fanfare, and an increasing number of users choose to opt out of targeted advertising. Facebook is playing the long game: by earning trust across the board, advertisers will eventually follow. By 2025, Facebook celebrates reaching its six billionth monthly active user. It has seamlessly integrated into every aspect of daily life, from its popular bitcoin alternative Libra to Oculus' AR glasses and Facebook's extensive entertainment division. Facebook has amassed enough cash to contemplate acquiring AT&T's media empire, positioning itself as a formidable competitor to Disney.
Similar to Disney, Facebook has mastered the art of maintaining a friendly and cheerful façade while extracting money from users. Whenever a new app gains popularity among teenagers, it's almost a given that Facebook will acquire it. Yet, users are less concerned about their data being sold. Facebook has become invulnerable, and people have grown indifferent.