Unlock the Ultimate World Cup Forecast: Predicting the Fate of All 48 Men's Teams with a Result Picked for Every Single Game
It appears that everyone is utilizing artificial intelligence to accomplish virtually everything. With the World Cup commencing on June 11, it is impossible to scroll through social media for more than a couple of minutes without encountering another post, video, or reel of someone explaining how they employed AI to predict the outcome of the World Cup.
I decided to use my own supercomputer to predict the outcome of every match in the 2026 World Cup - the supercomputer is referred to as "my brain."
There will be 104 matches at the 2026 World Cup, and, okay, fine, I must admit that I have only predicted 103 of them. I chose to skip the third-place game because prioritizing self-care is essential.
This is already the largest World Cup in history, with the field having been expanded to 48 teams, which means we will have 38.5% more matches than we did four years ago. It is indeed a lot.
With that, here is what happens when a human being predicts the outcome of every game in the 2026 World Cup.
Mexico has an Elo rating of 1800, ranking 14th out of 48 teams, with a 95% chance of advancing. South Korea has a rating of 1754, ranking 20th, with a 77% chance of advancing. Czechia has a rating of 1691, ranking 31st, with a 60% chance of advancing. South Africa has a rating of 1526, ranking 45th, with a 35% chance of advancing.
The ratings and predictions you see above are derived from the DTAI Analytics Lab at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. It is run by an American from Wisconsin, and the lab consistently produces the most cutting-edge, public-facing analytics work in the soccer world. Every four years, it also attempts to predict the World Cup, using a model that has outperformed bookmakers in previous tournaments.
However, please do not take that as betting advice. The model has outperformed the implied probabilities derived from bookmaker odds once you remove the vig, or the sportsbook's commission, not the actual odds you would have been able to place a bet against.
Anyway, the DTAI odds will serve as our baseline going forward. But I am also not going to mirror those odds in my predictions because that would be boring. It would be more accurate, it would be less fun, and it would also be wrong.
Why is that the case? Even if all the top 10 teams in the tournament have a 90% chance of advancing out of their group, that would mean there is only a 35% chance that all 10 of them get out of their group. So, we are going to try to identify the favorites and underdogs most likely to get sent home as well.
As for Group A, the main thing to know is that Mexico are heavy favorites for two reasons:
1. They get to play every game at home. In European club soccer, the difference between playing the same team home and away is essentially the difference between adding or removing peak Lionel Messi from your lineup.
2. They lucked out with the draw. Neither South Korea nor Czechia have the talent levels of golden generations past, while South Africa are one of the weakest teams in the tournament.
Mexico wins 2-0 against South Africa. South Korea and Czechia draw 1-1. Czechia wins 1-0 against South Africa. Mexico draws 1-1 with South Korea. South Africa loses 2-1 to South Korea. Czechia loses 2-1 to Mexico.
The final standings for Group A are as follows:
1. Mexico: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. South Korea: 5 points, plus-1 goal differential
3. Czechia: 4 points, even goal differential
4. South Africa: 0 points, minus-4 goal differential
Canada has an Elo rating of 1741, ranking 24th, with a 94% chance of advancing. Switzerland has a rating of 1781, ranking 16th, with a 94% chance of advancing. Bosnia & Herzegovina has a rating of 1589, ranking 41st, with a 46% chance of advancing. Qatar has a rating of 1591, ranking 40th, with a 29% chance of advancing.
Much like Mexico, hosts Canada landed a favorable draw. Not only do the Canadians get to play all their games at home, but they also get to play against two of the bottom 10 teams in the tournament.
If we look at all competitive games registered in the Opta database for all 48 World Cup participants since the start of 2024, there are four teams with negative goal differentials, and two of them are in Group B: Qatar and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
As you might expect from a team managed by Jesse Marsch, an American who has managed all three of Red Bull's main clubs - New York, Salzburg, and Leipzig - Canada are going to press when they can. They are among the leaders in the field in all the major pressing metrics: passes allowed per defensive action, opponent pass completion percentage, and the start distance from goal of their average possession.
In the past, Marsch has told me, "If we're winning 2-0, I'm always thinking of 3-0 and rarely thinking of 2-1." And that is evident with Canada as well. They haven't conceded a ton of shots, but when you break their press, you can get in on goal. Only two teams have allowed higher quality shots, as measured by expected goals per shot conceded.
Their toughest match will come against Switzerland, who are the U.S. men's national team of Europe - a team that continues to produce top-level talent you'll see playing in the Champions League every Tuesday and Wednesday but is still looking for its first few superstars.
Unfortunately, attacking midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri retired from the national team two years ago, meaning the odds of a player stripping completely naked after scoring a goal are significantly lower than they have been in any of the past three tournaments.
Canada wins 2-1 against Bosnia & Herzegovina. Qatar loses 2-0 to Switzerland. Switzerland wins 2-1 against Bosnia & Herzegovina. Canada wins 1-0 against Qatar. Switzerland draws 1-1 with Canada. Bosnia & Herzegovina wins 1-0 against Qatar.
The final standings for Group B are as follows:
1. Switzerland: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. Canada: 7 points, plus-2 goal differential
3. Qatar: 3 points, minus-2 goal differential
4. Bosnia & Herzegovina: 0 points, minus-3 goal differential
Brazil has an Elo rating of 1885, ranking 5th, with a 97% chance of advancing. Morocco has a rating of 1736, ranking 25th, with a 91% chance of advancing. Scotland has a rating of 1684, ranking 32nd, with a 66% chance of advancing. Haiti has a rating of 1583, ranking 42nd, with a 16% chance of advancing.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Brazil have the fourth-best odds of winning the World Cup - after the three consensus favorites: Spain, France, and England. This is the same team that finished fifth in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying.
Given how many people bet on the World Cup, I cannot help but think that this is one of the rare examples when an outsized amount of public money is boosting a team's odds. Brazil have won five World Cups, they have the fun yellow jerseys, they have a bunch of guys who go by only one name, etc.
The talent of this team, though, is not quite what it used to be. The roster features multiple players playing in Saudi Arabia or Russia. And outside of 34-year-old, possibly-not-healthy Neymar, no one else has scored more than 11 goals for the national team.
That said, Morocco - with their fantastic defense and their lawyer-awarded AFCON title - seem like the only team likely to challenge Carlo Ancelotti's group in the group stages. Scotland have a bunch of familiar names, and they will be frustrating to play against, but the results have not been there. Meanwhile, Haiti have been outscored 8-2 in the three matches they have played against World Cup teams since the start of 2024.
Brazil loses 1-0 to Morocco. Haiti loses 2-1 to Scotland. Scotland draws 0-0 with Morocco. Brazil wins 3-0 against Haiti. Scotland loses 1-0 to Brazil. Morocco wins 2-0 against Haiti.
The final standings for Group C are as follows:
1. Morocco: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. Brazil: 6 points, plus-3 goal differential
3. Scotland: 4 points, even goal differential
4. Haiti: 0 points, minus-6 goal differential
The United States has an Elo rating of 1765, ranking 18th, with a 78% chance of advancing. Türkiye has a rating of 1771, ranking 17th, with a 73% chance of advancing. Australia has a rating of 1747, ranking 22nd, with a 64% chance of advancing. Paraguay has a rating of 1706, ranking 28th, with a 58% chance of advancing.
A quick lesson on probabilities: All four teams in Group D are more likely to advance to the knockout rounds than not because of the eight third-place teams who will advance. And yet, it is impossible for all four teams from Group D to advance to the knockout rounds because every fourth-place team will be automatically eliminated.
So, just how evenly matched are these teams? The rating gap between the U.S. and Paraguay is smaller than the gap between England and France, the fourth- and third-ranked teams, respectively. And if you are wondering why the USMNT has the best odds to advance despite the second-best rating, it is because all of the team's games are home games.
I have written multiple times about how I do not think this is a great draw for the U.S., and here is an example of why.
Take Ecuador, a similarly rated team to the Americans. They are in a group with Germany, one of the pre-tournament favorites, and a very talented Ivory Coast team. However, Ecuador have a 92% chance of getting out of their group because the fourth-place team in that group is Curaçao, who have the third-worst rating in the tournament.
If you finish in third place with at least three points, it is very unlikely that you do not make the knockouts. And in a group like Ecuador's that has one truly weak side, it is very likely that three points will be enough to land you in third.
In Group D, though, anyone can beat anyone, so there is a very real chance that three points will not be enough to finish third - either because another team with three points has the tiebreaker over you or because everyone else nabs at least four points.
The United States wins 2-0 against Paraguay. Australia draws 1-1 with Türkiye. The United States draws 1-1 with Australia. Türkiye wins 2-1 against Paraguay. Paraguay draws 1-1 with Australia. Türkiye wins 2-1 against the United States.
The final standings for Group D are as follows:
1. United States: 4 points, plus-1 goal differential
2. Türkiye: 4 points, even goal differential
3. Paraguay: 4 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Australia: 3 points, even goal differential
Germany has an Elo rating of 1867, ranking 8th, with a 97% chance of advancing. Ecuador has a rating of 1793, ranking 15th, with a 92% chance of advancing. Ivory Coast has a rating of 1618, ranking 37th, with a 79% chance of advancing. Curaçao has a rating of 1520, ranking 46th, with a 9% chance of advancing.
I think this might even be a little too high for Curaçao. Both Germany and Ivory Coast have more talented teams than their ratings suggest, so their high ends are both a little higher than what is listed here.
Ecuador, meanwhile, are one of the strongest defensive teams in the tournament because of two defenders who just started the Champions League final, Arsenal's Piero Hincapié and Paris Saint-Germain's Willian Pacho, and one of the best defensive midfielders in the world in Chelsea's Moisés Caicedo.
I doubt there will be a ton of jockeying for places during the group stages because we do not really know who is going to end up where. But if everything goes chalk, then the winner of this group would play France in the round of 16 while second place, according to the DTAI projections, would get Brazil in the round of 16 and England in the quarterfinals - both of whom are rated lower than France.
Germany wins 5-0 against Curaçao. Ivory Coast loses 1-0 to Ecuador. Germany wins 3-1 against Ivory Coast. Ecuador wins 2-0 against Curaçao. Ecuador draws 1-1 with Germany. Curaçao loses 3-1 to Ivory Coast.
The final standings for Group E are as follows:
1. Germany: 7 points, plus-7 goal differential
2. Ecuador: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
3. Ivory Coast: 3 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Curaçao: 0 points, minus-9 goal differential
The Netherlands has an Elo rating of 1868, ranking 7th, with a 92% chance of advancing. Japan has a rating of 1833, ranking 10th, with a 90% chance of advancing. Sweden has a rating of 1701, ranking 29th, with a 49% chance of advancing. Tunisia has a rating of 1583, ranking 43rd, with a 36% chance of advancing.
Losing Kaoru Mitoma is a huge bummer for Japan. He peaked a little too late to become the kind of player the best clubs would have paid close to nine figures for, but he has genuinely played like one of those guys over the past three seasons.
Expected possession value is a stat that sums up how much a player's on-ball actions increased his team's chances of scoring a goal. And since 2023-24, the only players ahead of him are two starters for Manchester City, the last two Premier League players of the year, and the two best attackers on the team that just won the Premier League.
I am focusing on Japan here because they have been genuinely excellent for a while now - hence their top-10 place in the Elo ratings. And this is one of the few teams we can expect to actually see an organized defensive press from this summer.
If you have been upset about how the USMNT plays at any point over the past half-decade, Japan would be a legitimate reason for why. But only a couple of teams can afford losing their best attacker and still expect to make a deep run - Japan are not one of them.
One quick note on Sweden: They won zero games and finished last in their World Cup qualifying group.
Japan wins 2-1 against the Netherlands. Sweden wins 2-1 against Tunisia. The Netherlands wins 2-0 against Sweden. Tunisia loses 1-0 to Japan. Tunisia loses 3-0 to the Netherlands. Japan draws 1-1 with Sweden.
The final standings for Group F are as follows:
1. Japan: 7 points, plus-2 goal differential
2. Netherlands: 6 points, plus-4 goal differential
3. Sweden: 4 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Tunisia: 0 points, minus-5 goal differential
Belgium has an Elo rating of 1816, ranking 12th, with an 88% chance of advancing. Iran has a rating of 1757, ranking 19th, with a 74% chance of advancing. Egypt has a rating of 1632, ranking 35th, with a 67% chance of advancing. New Zealand has a rating of 1599, ranking 39th, with a 41% chance of advancing.
I recently saw something in some social media feed that labeled Belgium as a "potential dark horse" for the 2026 World Cup. Can you be a "dark horse" for four World Cups in a row? The reality is that this team is now part of the "Everyone Else" pack beyond the top seven or eight teams.
Jérémy Doku is the only real star on the roster - outside of the mid-30s former stars like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne. Belgium, then, seem primed to suffer an upset here. After all, they did not even get out of the group stages of the 2022 World Cup, when the roster was significantly better.
But they landed in a relatively easy group. Iran has the second-oldest roster, after Panama's. Egypt's two stars, Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush, had down seasons after great years in 2024-25. And New Zealand, well, they have a better shot than any of the other bottom-tier teams at getting out of their group.
Belgium wins 2-1 against Egypt. Iran draws 1-1 with New Zealand. Belgium draws 1-1 with Iran. New Zealand wins 2-1 against Egypt. New Zealand loses 2-1 to Belgium. Egypt draws 0-0 with Iran.
The final standings for Group G are as follows:
1. Belgium: 7 points, plus-2 goal differential
2. New Zealand: 4 points, even goal differential
3. Iran: 3 points, even goal differential
4. Egypt: 1 point, minus-2 goal differential
Spain has an Elo rating of 1979, ranking 1st, with a 99% chance of advancing. Uruguay has a rating of 1803, ranking 13th, with an 86% chance of advancing. Saudi Arabia has a rating of 1616, ranking 38th, with a 36% chance of advancing. Cape Verde has a rating of 1489, ranking 47th, with a 34% chance of advancing.
According to the crowdsourced numbers from Transfermarkt, there are currently six players in the world who would command a transfer fee of €200 million or more. Spain and France are the only teams that have two such players on their rosters. Not coincidentally, Spain and France are the two favorites to win the World Cup.
Put another way, the combined transfer value of Lamine Yamal and Pedri is €350 million.
I decided to use my own supercomputer to predict the outcome of every match in the 2026 World Cup - the supercomputer is referred to as "my brain."
There will be 104 matches at the 2026 World Cup, and, okay, fine, I must admit that I have only predicted 103 of them. I chose to skip the third-place game because prioritizing self-care is essential.
This is already the largest World Cup in history, with the field having been expanded to 48 teams, which means we will have 38.5% more matches than we did four years ago. It is indeed a lot.
With that, here is what happens when a human being predicts the outcome of every game in the 2026 World Cup.
Mexico has an Elo rating of 1800, ranking 14th out of 48 teams, with a 95% chance of advancing. South Korea has a rating of 1754, ranking 20th, with a 77% chance of advancing. Czechia has a rating of 1691, ranking 31st, with a 60% chance of advancing. South Africa has a rating of 1526, ranking 45th, with a 35% chance of advancing.
The ratings and predictions you see above are derived from the DTAI Analytics Lab at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. It is run by an American from Wisconsin, and the lab consistently produces the most cutting-edge, public-facing analytics work in the soccer world. Every four years, it also attempts to predict the World Cup, using a model that has outperformed bookmakers in previous tournaments.
However, please do not take that as betting advice. The model has outperformed the implied probabilities derived from bookmaker odds once you remove the vig, or the sportsbook's commission, not the actual odds you would have been able to place a bet against.
Anyway, the DTAI odds will serve as our baseline going forward. But I am also not going to mirror those odds in my predictions because that would be boring. It would be more accurate, it would be less fun, and it would also be wrong.
Why is that the case? Even if all the top 10 teams in the tournament have a 90% chance of advancing out of their group, that would mean there is only a 35% chance that all 10 of them get out of their group. So, we are going to try to identify the favorites and underdogs most likely to get sent home as well.
As for Group A, the main thing to know is that Mexico are heavy favorites for two reasons:
1. They get to play every game at home. In European club soccer, the difference between playing the same team home and away is essentially the difference between adding or removing peak Lionel Messi from your lineup.
2. They lucked out with the draw. Neither South Korea nor Czechia have the talent levels of golden generations past, while South Africa are one of the weakest teams in the tournament.
Mexico wins 2-0 against South Africa. South Korea and Czechia draw 1-1. Czechia wins 1-0 against South Africa. Mexico draws 1-1 with South Korea. South Africa loses 2-1 to South Korea. Czechia loses 2-1 to Mexico.
The final standings for Group A are as follows:
1. Mexico: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. South Korea: 5 points, plus-1 goal differential
3. Czechia: 4 points, even goal differential
4. South Africa: 0 points, minus-4 goal differential
Canada has an Elo rating of 1741, ranking 24th, with a 94% chance of advancing. Switzerland has a rating of 1781, ranking 16th, with a 94% chance of advancing. Bosnia & Herzegovina has a rating of 1589, ranking 41st, with a 46% chance of advancing. Qatar has a rating of 1591, ranking 40th, with a 29% chance of advancing.
Much like Mexico, hosts Canada landed a favorable draw. Not only do the Canadians get to play all their games at home, but they also get to play against two of the bottom 10 teams in the tournament.
If we look at all competitive games registered in the Opta database for all 48 World Cup participants since the start of 2024, there are four teams with negative goal differentials, and two of them are in Group B: Qatar and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
As you might expect from a team managed by Jesse Marsch, an American who has managed all three of Red Bull's main clubs - New York, Salzburg, and Leipzig - Canada are going to press when they can. They are among the leaders in the field in all the major pressing metrics: passes allowed per defensive action, opponent pass completion percentage, and the start distance from goal of their average possession.
In the past, Marsch has told me, "If we're winning 2-0, I'm always thinking of 3-0 and rarely thinking of 2-1." And that is evident with Canada as well. They haven't conceded a ton of shots, but when you break their press, you can get in on goal. Only two teams have allowed higher quality shots, as measured by expected goals per shot conceded.
Their toughest match will come against Switzerland, who are the U.S. men's national team of Europe - a team that continues to produce top-level talent you'll see playing in the Champions League every Tuesday and Wednesday but is still looking for its first few superstars.
Unfortunately, attacking midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri retired from the national team two years ago, meaning the odds of a player stripping completely naked after scoring a goal are significantly lower than they have been in any of the past three tournaments.
Canada wins 2-1 against Bosnia & Herzegovina. Qatar loses 2-0 to Switzerland. Switzerland wins 2-1 against Bosnia & Herzegovina. Canada wins 1-0 against Qatar. Switzerland draws 1-1 with Canada. Bosnia & Herzegovina wins 1-0 against Qatar.
The final standings for Group B are as follows:
1. Switzerland: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. Canada: 7 points, plus-2 goal differential
3. Qatar: 3 points, minus-2 goal differential
4. Bosnia & Herzegovina: 0 points, minus-3 goal differential
Brazil has an Elo rating of 1885, ranking 5th, with a 97% chance of advancing. Morocco has a rating of 1736, ranking 25th, with a 91% chance of advancing. Scotland has a rating of 1684, ranking 32nd, with a 66% chance of advancing. Haiti has a rating of 1583, ranking 42nd, with a 16% chance of advancing.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Brazil have the fourth-best odds of winning the World Cup - after the three consensus favorites: Spain, France, and England. This is the same team that finished fifth in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying.
Given how many people bet on the World Cup, I cannot help but think that this is one of the rare examples when an outsized amount of public money is boosting a team's odds. Brazil have won five World Cups, they have the fun yellow jerseys, they have a bunch of guys who go by only one name, etc.
The talent of this team, though, is not quite what it used to be. The roster features multiple players playing in Saudi Arabia or Russia. And outside of 34-year-old, possibly-not-healthy Neymar, no one else has scored more than 11 goals for the national team.
That said, Morocco - with their fantastic defense and their lawyer-awarded AFCON title - seem like the only team likely to challenge Carlo Ancelotti's group in the group stages. Scotland have a bunch of familiar names, and they will be frustrating to play against, but the results have not been there. Meanwhile, Haiti have been outscored 8-2 in the three matches they have played against World Cup teams since the start of 2024.
Brazil loses 1-0 to Morocco. Haiti loses 2-1 to Scotland. Scotland draws 0-0 with Morocco. Brazil wins 3-0 against Haiti. Scotland loses 1-0 to Brazil. Morocco wins 2-0 against Haiti.
The final standings for Group C are as follows:
1. Morocco: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. Brazil: 6 points, plus-3 goal differential
3. Scotland: 4 points, even goal differential
4. Haiti: 0 points, minus-6 goal differential
The United States has an Elo rating of 1765, ranking 18th, with a 78% chance of advancing. Türkiye has a rating of 1771, ranking 17th, with a 73% chance of advancing. Australia has a rating of 1747, ranking 22nd, with a 64% chance of advancing. Paraguay has a rating of 1706, ranking 28th, with a 58% chance of advancing.
A quick lesson on probabilities: All four teams in Group D are more likely to advance to the knockout rounds than not because of the eight third-place teams who will advance. And yet, it is impossible for all four teams from Group D to advance to the knockout rounds because every fourth-place team will be automatically eliminated.
So, just how evenly matched are these teams? The rating gap between the U.S. and Paraguay is smaller than the gap between England and France, the fourth- and third-ranked teams, respectively. And if you are wondering why the USMNT has the best odds to advance despite the second-best rating, it is because all of the team's games are home games.
I have written multiple times about how I do not think this is a great draw for the U.S., and here is an example of why.
Take Ecuador, a similarly rated team to the Americans. They are in a group with Germany, one of the pre-tournament favorites, and a very talented Ivory Coast team. However, Ecuador have a 92% chance of getting out of their group because the fourth-place team in that group is Curaçao, who have the third-worst rating in the tournament.
If you finish in third place with at least three points, it is very unlikely that you do not make the knockouts. And in a group like Ecuador's that has one truly weak side, it is very likely that three points will be enough to land you in third.
In Group D, though, anyone can beat anyone, so there is a very real chance that three points will not be enough to finish third - either because another team with three points has the tiebreaker over you or because everyone else nabs at least four points.
The United States wins 2-0 against Paraguay. Australia draws 1-1 with Türkiye. The United States draws 1-1 with Australia. Türkiye wins 2-1 against Paraguay. Paraguay draws 1-1 with Australia. Türkiye wins 2-1 against the United States.
The final standings for Group D are as follows:
1. United States: 4 points, plus-1 goal differential
2. Türkiye: 4 points, even goal differential
3. Paraguay: 4 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Australia: 3 points, even goal differential
Germany has an Elo rating of 1867, ranking 8th, with a 97% chance of advancing. Ecuador has a rating of 1793, ranking 15th, with a 92% chance of advancing. Ivory Coast has a rating of 1618, ranking 37th, with a 79% chance of advancing. Curaçao has a rating of 1520, ranking 46th, with a 9% chance of advancing.
I think this might even be a little too high for Curaçao. Both Germany and Ivory Coast have more talented teams than their ratings suggest, so their high ends are both a little higher than what is listed here.
Ecuador, meanwhile, are one of the strongest defensive teams in the tournament because of two defenders who just started the Champions League final, Arsenal's Piero Hincapié and Paris Saint-Germain's Willian Pacho, and one of the best defensive midfielders in the world in Chelsea's Moisés Caicedo.
I doubt there will be a ton of jockeying for places during the group stages because we do not really know who is going to end up where. But if everything goes chalk, then the winner of this group would play France in the round of 16 while second place, according to the DTAI projections, would get Brazil in the round of 16 and England in the quarterfinals - both of whom are rated lower than France.
Germany wins 5-0 against Curaçao. Ivory Coast loses 1-0 to Ecuador. Germany wins 3-1 against Ivory Coast. Ecuador wins 2-0 against Curaçao. Ecuador draws 1-1 with Germany. Curaçao loses 3-1 to Ivory Coast.
The final standings for Group E are as follows:
1. Germany: 7 points, plus-7 goal differential
2. Ecuador: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
3. Ivory Coast: 3 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Curaçao: 0 points, minus-9 goal differential
The Netherlands has an Elo rating of 1868, ranking 7th, with a 92% chance of advancing. Japan has a rating of 1833, ranking 10th, with a 90% chance of advancing. Sweden has a rating of 1701, ranking 29th, with a 49% chance of advancing. Tunisia has a rating of 1583, ranking 43rd, with a 36% chance of advancing.
Losing Kaoru Mitoma is a huge bummer for Japan. He peaked a little too late to become the kind of player the best clubs would have paid close to nine figures for, but he has genuinely played like one of those guys over the past three seasons.
Expected possession value is a stat that sums up how much a player's on-ball actions increased his team's chances of scoring a goal. And since 2023-24, the only players ahead of him are two starters for Manchester City, the last two Premier League players of the year, and the two best attackers on the team that just won the Premier League.
I am focusing on Japan here because they have been genuinely excellent for a while now - hence their top-10 place in the Elo ratings. And this is one of the few teams we can expect to actually see an organized defensive press from this summer.
If you have been upset about how the USMNT plays at any point over the past half-decade, Japan would be a legitimate reason for why. But only a couple of teams can afford losing their best attacker and still expect to make a deep run - Japan are not one of them.
One quick note on Sweden: They won zero games and finished last in their World Cup qualifying group.
Japan wins 2-1 against the Netherlands. Sweden wins 2-1 against Tunisia. The Netherlands wins 2-0 against Sweden. Tunisia loses 1-0 to Japan. Tunisia loses 3-0 to the Netherlands. Japan draws 1-1 with Sweden.
The final standings for Group F are as follows:
1. Japan: 7 points, plus-2 goal differential
2. Netherlands: 6 points, plus-4 goal differential
3. Sweden: 4 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Tunisia: 0 points, minus-5 goal differential
Belgium has an Elo rating of 1816, ranking 12th, with an 88% chance of advancing. Iran has a rating of 1757, ranking 19th, with a 74% chance of advancing. Egypt has a rating of 1632, ranking 35th, with a 67% chance of advancing. New Zealand has a rating of 1599, ranking 39th, with a 41% chance of advancing.
I recently saw something in some social media feed that labeled Belgium as a "potential dark horse" for the 2026 World Cup. Can you be a "dark horse" for four World Cups in a row? The reality is that this team is now part of the "Everyone Else" pack beyond the top seven or eight teams.
Jérémy Doku is the only real star on the roster - outside of the mid-30s former stars like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne. Belgium, then, seem primed to suffer an upset here. After all, they did not even get out of the group stages of the 2022 World Cup, when the roster was significantly better.
But they landed in a relatively easy group. Iran has the second-oldest roster, after Panama's. Egypt's two stars, Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush, had down seasons after great years in 2024-25. And New Zealand, well, they have a better shot than any of the other bottom-tier teams at getting out of their group.
Belgium wins 2-1 against Egypt. Iran draws 1-1 with New Zealand. Belgium draws 1-1 with Iran. New Zealand wins 2-1 against Egypt. New Zealand loses 2-1 to Belgium. Egypt draws 0-0 with Iran.
The final standings for Group G are as follows:
1. Belgium: 7 points, plus-2 goal differential
2. New Zealand: 4 points, even goal differential
3. Iran: 3 points, even goal differential
4. Egypt: 1 point, minus-2 goal differential
Spain has an Elo rating of 1979, ranking 1st, with a 99% chance of advancing. Uruguay has a rating of 1803, ranking 13th, with an 86% chance of advancing. Saudi Arabia has a rating of 1616, ranking 38th, with a 36% chance of advancing. Cape Verde has a rating of 1489, ranking 47th, with a 34% chance of advancing.
According to the crowdsourced numbers from Transfermarkt, there are currently six players in the world who would command a transfer fee of €200 million or more. Spain and France are the only teams that have two such players on their rosters. Not coincidentally, Spain and France are the two favorites to win the World Cup.
Put another way, the combined transfer value of Lamine Yamal and Pedri is €350 million.
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