Donald Trump's Global Interventions Hit a Stalemate Phase and the Consequences are Starting to Sting

In Ukraine, Gaza, and now Iran, the initial declarations of easy victories by President Trump have given way to a more complex and challenging reality. Having covered five American presidents over a span of four decades at the Times, David E. Sanger frequently writes about the resurgence of superpower conflict, a topic that is also the subject of his latest book. President Trump has consistently expressed a preference for rapid, decisive, and uncomplicated military and diplomatic victories. On his desk in the Oval Office, he keeps models of the B-2 bombers that successfully targeted three Iranian nuclear sites in a single night, an event that took place almost a year ago. During the initial weeks of the Iran conflict this year, he frequently discussed the possibility of replicating his perceived success in Venezuela, referring to it as "the perfect scenario," which essentially meant overthrowing a troublesome leader through a single, swift commando raid and replacing them with a more compliant and American-friendly successor. However, President Trump has now entered the stalemate phase of his presidency, and the war with Iran is a clear example of this. When he announced a cease-fire on April 7, Mr. Trump stated on social media that the end of combat operations would be conditional upon "the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz," but this condition has not been met. Even if commercial activities resume across the strait under a memorandum of understanding that is still being negotiated, the future of Iran's nuclear and missile programs will remain unchanged from their status in February, stuck in a further negotiation that the administration claims will be "time limited," likely to a period of 60 days. Nevertheless, the Iranians are aware of Mr. Trump's deep reluctance to restart combat operations, which are deeply unpopular in the United States, and most experts on Iran believe that Tehran will attempt to prolong the negotiations for months or even years, a tactic they have employed with previous administrations. Additionally, there is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a war that has been raging for five years and which Mr. Trump famously claimed he would resolve within 24 hours of taking office. Sixteen months after his inauguration, he rarely mentions the war anymore, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently expressed his frustration with the endless negotiations, suggesting that he would be more than happy if another country were to take on the role of mediator. For their part, the Russians have discreetly made it clear that they are tired of periodic visits from the president's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Mr. Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, according to individuals familiar with the negotiations. They are seeking a stable and diplomatic process, complete with working groups and regular meetings, and are also demanding the appointment of an American ambassador to Russia, a position that has been vacant for almost a year. Furthermore, there is the situation in Gaza, where Mr. Trump, upon visiting Israel to celebrate the release of the last living hostages from the October 7, 2023, terror attack, enthusiastically discussed a 20-point plan that began with the disarming of Hamas, the establishment of an international stabilization force, and ultimately, the rebuilding of Gaza into a thriving territory with glass office towers and seaside resorts.

Eight months have now passed since that trip took place, and Hamas still has not disarmed, with the only evidence of disarmament being found in fake, artificially generated videos that have been created using advanced technology, including artificial intelligence. One such video, which was shared by Mr. Trump, features a fabricated scenario in which he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are seen sunbathing together, highlighting the deceptive nature of these artificially generated clips.

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