Why Every Round-of-32 Team Will or Won't Win the World Cup
France's offense, led by Kylian Mbappe, has been one of the most potent in the tournament, and their ability to score goals in bunches could be the key to their success. With a talented supporting cast, including Antoine Griezmann and Olivier Giroud, France has the firepower to outscore any opponent. Their defense, however, has been a concern, and they will need to tighten up if they hope to make a deep run in the tournament.
Why they won't: Defensive issues could be their downfall. France has struggled to keep clean sheets, and their defense has been exposed at times. If they cannot find a way to shore up their backline, they could be vulnerable to teams that can exploit their weaknesses. Additionally, their over-reliance on Mbappe could be a problem if he is neutralized or injured.
Projected R32 opponent: South Korea, July 2
Why they will win it all: England has a deep and talented squad, with a good mix of experienced players and young talent. They have been one of the most consistent teams in the tournament, and their ability to control possession and create scoring chances could serve them well in the knockout rounds. With players like Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka leading the way, England has the potential to make a deep run in the tournament.
Why they won't: They may struggle to break down parked buses. England has had trouble in the past against teams that defend deeply and look to counter-attack, and they may face similar challenges in the knockout rounds. If they cannot find a way to break down these types of teams, they could be frustrated and ultimately eliminated.
Brazil's attacking prowess is undeniable, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed by a well-organized team. The absence of a strong pressing presence, following Raphinha's injury, has put additional strain on their midfield, which is still reliant on the 34-year-old Casemiro to cover defensive gaps. Although they have a solid center-back pairing in Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães, Brazil's overall team balance is a concern, which could be exploited by opponents.
In contrast, Canada's identity and playing style, under Jesse Marsch, have been a key factor in their success. Their fast-paced, counter-attacking approach has yielded promising results, with three goals scored from high turnovers in two matches. The team's ability to create quick-strike opportunities, combined with the goal-scoring form of Jonathan David and Cyle Larin, makes them a potentially formidable opponent in the knockout stages.
Egypt, meanwhile, has been quietly impressive, earning four points from their opening two matches. Their neutral statistics, including a slight edge in shot attempts and a high success rate in duels, suggest a well-balanced team. The presence of Mohamed Salah, who has already contributed a goal and two assists, gives them a decisive edge in matches where the overall statistics are evenly matched. However, Egypt's reliance on direct play and sprinting may not be as effective against stronger, more organized teams in the tournament.
As the group stage progresses, these teams will face crucial tests of their strengths and weaknesses. Brazil's encounter with Belgium on July 3 will be a significant challenge, while Canada's potential matchup against Czechia on July 1 could be an opportunity for them to demonstrate their knockout stage credentials. Egypt, meanwhile, will look to build on their promising start and navigate the challenges of the knockout stages, where their pace and directness will be put to the test against more formidable opponents.
And relying on sprints and speed when your team is one of the oldest at the World Cup -- players 29 or older have accounted for 55% of their minutes, and the linchpin is the 34-year-old Salah -- doesn't seem like a wonderful combination. Egypt's projected round of 32 opponent is Sweden, on June 30.
France, meanwhile, has been impressive, with Kylian Mbappé shining at the international level. After a slow start against Senegal, France has outscored opponents 6-1 in their past 1.5 halves, with Mbappé scoring four goals. They remain happy to allow lesser opponents possession of the ball, then explode into transition spaces. France's formula has worked in the past, and with their raw talent, it's likely to continue. However, their passive defense is a concern, as they're making fewer defensive interventions than in previous tournaments.
Germany is another team with a strong chance of success, with many of their key players in good form. Kai Havertz has produced eight goals and four assists in his past 14 matches, while Joshua Kimmich is creating danger on set pieces. Midfielders Felix Nmecha and Aleksandar Pavlovic are providing industry and box-crashing attack, and emerging left back Nathaniel Brown is making a significant impact. However, Germany's losses of control in certain periods of matches are a vulnerability that could be exposed against stronger opponents, particularly with the potential absence of defender Nico Schlotterbeck.
Japan has built a sturdy base, committing just six total high turnovers in their matches against the Netherlands and Tunisia. They've averaged 7.5 passes per possession, indicating a patient and controlled approach. Japan's projected round of 32 opponent is Brazil, on June 29. With their solid foundation, Japan could pose a challenge to their opponents, but they will need to maintain their discipline and control to succeed in the knockout stages.
The Netherlands' dominant performance showcased their exceptional attacking prowess, with Cody Gakpo and Wout Weghorst leading the charge. They averaged 9 passes per possession, a testament to their controlled approach, and had the fewest total possessions per match, with 63.5. Despite missing key players like Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma, Monaco's Takumi Minamino, and Liverpool's Wataru Endo, Japan has maintained control, limiting opponents' transition opportunities and allowing no high-quality shots.
Japan's scoring punch has come from Ayase Ueda and Daichi Kamada, with two goals each. However, the absence of their high-level attacking talent may become a concern if they advance deep into the tournament.
Mexico, on the other hand, has clinched first place in Group A, which could give them a significant advantage in the knockout stages, with their first two matches potentially being at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. While their play has not been outstanding, they have defended well and have a chance to build momentum.
Morocco has demonstrated their ability to play with and without the ball, creating shot quality advantages and posing a serious threat on the counter. They have the talent to adapt their approach and potentially make a deep run in the tournament. However, their bench depth may be a concern, as they have struggled to maintain their advantage in the final 30 minutes of matches.
The Netherlands' impressive victory over Sweden has made a strong statement, with their attacking trio of Gakpo, Weghorst, and Memphis Depay proving nearly unstoppable. Their ability to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities has made them a formidable opponent in the tournament.
Cody Gakpo and new starter Brian Brobbey combined for four goals and an assist, while Virgil van Dijk and the back line effectively neutralized Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres. The Dutch team's ability to establish an early lead and then counterattack with vigor has made them a formidable opponent.
Their well-rounded squad, with major-club talent at every level of the pitch, has not lost a World Cup match, raising questions about what they might be lacking. However, it's hard to trust Ronald Koeman, the Dutch manager, who has a more regressive and conservative approach. This was evident when he made defensive substitutions against Japan, leading to his team giving up control of the pitch and conceding a late tying goal.
The Netherlands' projected Round of 32 opponent is Ivory Coast, on June 30. In contrast, Norway has been making a strong case for themselves, thanks in large part to Erling Haaland, who is averaging nearly one goal per half. Haaland's performance has been instrumental in Norway's comfortable advancement to the knockout rounds, outscoring Iraq and Senegal by a combined 7-3.
Norway's "golden generation" includes players like Manchester City's Haaland, Arsenal's Martin Odegaard, and Borussia Dortmund's Julian Ryerson, all of whom are reaching their athletic primes at the same time. However, Norway's defensive fragility, despite having players like Kristoffer Ajer and Torbjorn Heggem, remains a concern. They rank 22nd in xG allowed per shot and 35th in shots allowed per possession, and have struggled to see out wins, particularly against Senegal.
Norway's projected Round of 32 opponent is Austria, on July 2. Meanwhile, Spain has alleviated concerns about their form with a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia, showcasing their ability to dominate the ball and utilize the speed of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. While they appear to be a strong contender, questions remain about whether they still have the same recipe that led to their Euro 2024 success, particularly given the inconsistent form of key players like Williams and Rodri.
Spain's projected Round of 32 opponent is South Korea, on Sunday. Another team to watch is one that has generated an xG differential of plus-2.0 or higher in their first two World Cup matches, a statistic that could be a strong indicator of their potential for success.
Favorites such as Spain, England, and Germany are considered top contenders, while a Canada team that dominated a nine-man Qatar and Switzerland, who convincingly beat Bosnia and Herzegovina, are also making a strong case. The Swiss have generated the fourth-most expected goals through two matches and have allowed the third-lowest, showcasing their impressive performance against relatively weak opponents.
Their squad boasts a mix of veterans like Granit Xhaka and youngsters like Johan Manzambi, creating a balance that has led to them producing better chances than they allow. However, the team's tendency to be embroiled in drama, including negative headlines and internal conflicts, raises concerns about their ability to perform under pressure. Xhaka has publicly criticized some of his younger teammates, and their body language often suggests a lack of confidence, as seen when they conceded a late equalizer against Qatar.
The US team, on the other hand, is experiencing a surge in fortune, with a healthy squad and a series of favorable events, including own goals in two consecutive matches. Folarin Balogun's impressive finishing and Alex Freeman's improved performance have been key factors, while the collapse of Türkiye and Belgium's underwhelming performance have given the US a relatively easy path to the quarterfinals. The team's 6-1 aggregate score against decent opponents and their expected full strength in the knockout rounds have created a sense of optimism.
However, the US team's defensive vulnerabilities remain a concern, having allowed 11 combined goals in four matches against top-15 opponents, including a lapse in concentration against Paraguay. Their aggressive playing style, while effective, also leaves them exposed to counterattacks and set-piece threats, making their defense a potential weakness that could lead to their downfall.
Why they won't: Defensive issues could be their downfall. France has struggled to keep clean sheets, and their defense has been exposed at times. If they cannot find a way to shore up their backline, they could be vulnerable to teams that can exploit their weaknesses. Additionally, their over-reliance on Mbappe could be a problem if he is neutralized or injured.
Projected R32 opponent: South Korea, July 2
Why they will win it all: England has a deep and talented squad, with a good mix of experienced players and young talent. They have been one of the most consistent teams in the tournament, and their ability to control possession and create scoring chances could serve them well in the knockout rounds. With players like Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka leading the way, England has the potential to make a deep run in the tournament.
Why they won't: They may struggle to break down parked buses. England has had trouble in the past against teams that defend deeply and look to counter-attack, and they may face similar challenges in the knockout rounds. If they cannot find a way to break down these types of teams, they could be frustrated and ultimately eliminated.
Brazil's attacking prowess is undeniable, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed by a well-organized team. The absence of a strong pressing presence, following Raphinha's injury, has put additional strain on their midfield, which is still reliant on the 34-year-old Casemiro to cover defensive gaps. Although they have a solid center-back pairing in Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães, Brazil's overall team balance is a concern, which could be exploited by opponents.
In contrast, Canada's identity and playing style, under Jesse Marsch, have been a key factor in their success. Their fast-paced, counter-attacking approach has yielded promising results, with three goals scored from high turnovers in two matches. The team's ability to create quick-strike opportunities, combined with the goal-scoring form of Jonathan David and Cyle Larin, makes them a potentially formidable opponent in the knockout stages.
Egypt, meanwhile, has been quietly impressive, earning four points from their opening two matches. Their neutral statistics, including a slight edge in shot attempts and a high success rate in duels, suggest a well-balanced team. The presence of Mohamed Salah, who has already contributed a goal and two assists, gives them a decisive edge in matches where the overall statistics are evenly matched. However, Egypt's reliance on direct play and sprinting may not be as effective against stronger, more organized teams in the tournament.
As the group stage progresses, these teams will face crucial tests of their strengths and weaknesses. Brazil's encounter with Belgium on July 3 will be a significant challenge, while Canada's potential matchup against Czechia on July 1 could be an opportunity for them to demonstrate their knockout stage credentials. Egypt, meanwhile, will look to build on their promising start and navigate the challenges of the knockout stages, where their pace and directness will be put to the test against more formidable opponents.
And relying on sprints and speed when your team is one of the oldest at the World Cup -- players 29 or older have accounted for 55% of their minutes, and the linchpin is the 34-year-old Salah -- doesn't seem like a wonderful combination. Egypt's projected round of 32 opponent is Sweden, on June 30.
France, meanwhile, has been impressive, with Kylian Mbappé shining at the international level. After a slow start against Senegal, France has outscored opponents 6-1 in their past 1.5 halves, with Mbappé scoring four goals. They remain happy to allow lesser opponents possession of the ball, then explode into transition spaces. France's formula has worked in the past, and with their raw talent, it's likely to continue. However, their passive defense is a concern, as they're making fewer defensive interventions than in previous tournaments.
Germany is another team with a strong chance of success, with many of their key players in good form. Kai Havertz has produced eight goals and four assists in his past 14 matches, while Joshua Kimmich is creating danger on set pieces. Midfielders Felix Nmecha and Aleksandar Pavlovic are providing industry and box-crashing attack, and emerging left back Nathaniel Brown is making a significant impact. However, Germany's losses of control in certain periods of matches are a vulnerability that could be exposed against stronger opponents, particularly with the potential absence of defender Nico Schlotterbeck.
Japan has built a sturdy base, committing just six total high turnovers in their matches against the Netherlands and Tunisia. They've averaged 7.5 passes per possession, indicating a patient and controlled approach. Japan's projected round of 32 opponent is Brazil, on June 29. With their solid foundation, Japan could pose a challenge to their opponents, but they will need to maintain their discipline and control to succeed in the knockout stages.
The Netherlands' dominant performance showcased their exceptional attacking prowess, with Cody Gakpo and Wout Weghorst leading the charge. They averaged 9 passes per possession, a testament to their controlled approach, and had the fewest total possessions per match, with 63.5. Despite missing key players like Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma, Monaco's Takumi Minamino, and Liverpool's Wataru Endo, Japan has maintained control, limiting opponents' transition opportunities and allowing no high-quality shots.
Japan's scoring punch has come from Ayase Ueda and Daichi Kamada, with two goals each. However, the absence of their high-level attacking talent may become a concern if they advance deep into the tournament.
Mexico, on the other hand, has clinched first place in Group A, which could give them a significant advantage in the knockout stages, with their first two matches potentially being at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. While their play has not been outstanding, they have defended well and have a chance to build momentum.
Morocco has demonstrated their ability to play with and without the ball, creating shot quality advantages and posing a serious threat on the counter. They have the talent to adapt their approach and potentially make a deep run in the tournament. However, their bench depth may be a concern, as they have struggled to maintain their advantage in the final 30 minutes of matches.
The Netherlands' impressive victory over Sweden has made a strong statement, with their attacking trio of Gakpo, Weghorst, and Memphis Depay proving nearly unstoppable. Their ability to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities has made them a formidable opponent in the tournament.
Cody Gakpo and new starter Brian Brobbey combined for four goals and an assist, while Virgil van Dijk and the back line effectively neutralized Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres. The Dutch team's ability to establish an early lead and then counterattack with vigor has made them a formidable opponent.
Their well-rounded squad, with major-club talent at every level of the pitch, has not lost a World Cup match, raising questions about what they might be lacking. However, it's hard to trust Ronald Koeman, the Dutch manager, who has a more regressive and conservative approach. This was evident when he made defensive substitutions against Japan, leading to his team giving up control of the pitch and conceding a late tying goal.
The Netherlands' projected Round of 32 opponent is Ivory Coast, on June 30. In contrast, Norway has been making a strong case for themselves, thanks in large part to Erling Haaland, who is averaging nearly one goal per half. Haaland's performance has been instrumental in Norway's comfortable advancement to the knockout rounds, outscoring Iraq and Senegal by a combined 7-3.
Norway's "golden generation" includes players like Manchester City's Haaland, Arsenal's Martin Odegaard, and Borussia Dortmund's Julian Ryerson, all of whom are reaching their athletic primes at the same time. However, Norway's defensive fragility, despite having players like Kristoffer Ajer and Torbjorn Heggem, remains a concern. They rank 22nd in xG allowed per shot and 35th in shots allowed per possession, and have struggled to see out wins, particularly against Senegal.
Norway's projected Round of 32 opponent is Austria, on July 2. Meanwhile, Spain has alleviated concerns about their form with a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia, showcasing their ability to dominate the ball and utilize the speed of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. While they appear to be a strong contender, questions remain about whether they still have the same recipe that led to their Euro 2024 success, particularly given the inconsistent form of key players like Williams and Rodri.
Spain's projected Round of 32 opponent is South Korea, on Sunday. Another team to watch is one that has generated an xG differential of plus-2.0 or higher in their first two World Cup matches, a statistic that could be a strong indicator of their potential for success.
Favorites such as Spain, England, and Germany are considered top contenders, while a Canada team that dominated a nine-man Qatar and Switzerland, who convincingly beat Bosnia and Herzegovina, are also making a strong case. The Swiss have generated the fourth-most expected goals through two matches and have allowed the third-lowest, showcasing their impressive performance against relatively weak opponents.
Their squad boasts a mix of veterans like Granit Xhaka and youngsters like Johan Manzambi, creating a balance that has led to them producing better chances than they allow. However, the team's tendency to be embroiled in drama, including negative headlines and internal conflicts, raises concerns about their ability to perform under pressure. Xhaka has publicly criticized some of his younger teammates, and their body language often suggests a lack of confidence, as seen when they conceded a late equalizer against Qatar.
The US team, on the other hand, is experiencing a surge in fortune, with a healthy squad and a series of favorable events, including own goals in two consecutive matches. Folarin Balogun's impressive finishing and Alex Freeman's improved performance have been key factors, while the collapse of Türkiye and Belgium's underwhelming performance have given the US a relatively easy path to the quarterfinals. The team's 6-1 aggregate score against decent opponents and their expected full strength in the knockout rounds have created a sense of optimism.
However, the US team's defensive vulnerabilities remain a concern, having allowed 11 combined goals in four matches against top-15 opponents, including a lapse in concentration against Paraguay. Their aggressive playing style, while effective, also leaves them exposed to counterattacks and set-piece threats, making their defense a potential weakness that could lead to their downfall.
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