Bertha Storm Raises Concerns, Is This a Sign of Things to Come This Hurricane Season?
Despite the potential for a below-normal hurricane season, experts caution that it's still crucial for coastal residents to remain vigilant and prepare for any potential storms. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic, although none are currently expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Phil Klotzbach notes that while El Niño tends to suppress hurricane activity, it's not a guarantee that the season will be completely quiet. "There have been several instances where El Niño has been present, and yet we've still had significant hurricane landfalls in the US," he said.
The impact of El Niño on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be closely watched by researchers and forecasters. Michael Lowry emphasizes that the strength and duration of El Niño will play a significant role in determining the overall activity of the season. "If El Niño remains strong through the summer and into the fall, it could lead to a relatively quiet hurricane season," he said.
However, there are still many factors that can influence the development and trajectory of hurricanes, including wind patterns, sea surface temperatures, and the presence of dry air. As the season progresses, forecasters will continue to monitor these factors and provide updates on the potential for hurricane activity.
In the meantime, the strong wind shear that has been affecting Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue, making it difficult for the system to strengthen. The National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for parts of the Gulf Coast, although the storm's impact is expected to be minimal. As the storm moves inland, it is likely to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to several states, highlighting the importance of staying informed and prepared for any potential weather events.
Colorado State University's forecast predicts only nine named storms will form, significantly below the average of 14. Phil Klotzbach attributes this forecast to the predicted ongoing strong wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic, which will likely suppress hurricane development. "Vertical wind shear is currently running even higher than we typically see in below-average Atlantic hurricane seasons," he explained. The latest four-week forecast from the European weather model ECMWF indicates well above-normal shear is likely across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic over the next few weeks, further supporting this prediction.
Phil Klotzbach notes that while El Niño tends to suppress hurricane activity, it's not a guarantee that the season will be completely quiet. "There have been several instances where El Niño has been present, and yet we've still had significant hurricane landfalls in the US," he said.
The impact of El Niño on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be closely watched by researchers and forecasters. Michael Lowry emphasizes that the strength and duration of El Niño will play a significant role in determining the overall activity of the season. "If El Niño remains strong through the summer and into the fall, it could lead to a relatively quiet hurricane season," he said.
However, there are still many factors that can influence the development and trajectory of hurricanes, including wind patterns, sea surface temperatures, and the presence of dry air. As the season progresses, forecasters will continue to monitor these factors and provide updates on the potential for hurricane activity.
In the meantime, the strong wind shear that has been affecting Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue, making it difficult for the system to strengthen. The National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for parts of the Gulf Coast, although the storm's impact is expected to be minimal. As the storm moves inland, it is likely to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to several states, highlighting the importance of staying informed and prepared for any potential weather events.
Colorado State University's forecast predicts only nine named storms will form, significantly below the average of 14. Phil Klotzbach attributes this forecast to the predicted ongoing strong wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic, which will likely suppress hurricane development. "Vertical wind shear is currently running even higher than we typically see in below-average Atlantic hurricane seasons," he explained. The latest four-week forecast from the European weather model ECMWF indicates well above-normal shear is likely across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic over the next few weeks, further supporting this prediction.
#News, #USA