Unpacking the 2026 NWSL Midseason with a Deeper Dive into Expected Threat Metrics and Trends
Further examination of Racing Louisville's squad reveals that their wingers, including Savannah McCaskill and Jillian Lopez, have struggled to create significant threat, combining for a total of 0.44 xT. This is an area where the team may look to improve, as their inability to generate danger from the wings has limited their overall attacking potential. In contrast, the team's central midfielders have shown promise, with Katie O'Kane and Taylor Flint demonstrating an ability to create scoring opportunities through their passing and movement.
Moving up the standings, the North Carolina Courage have had a mixed season, currently sitting in 11th place. Despite this, they rank 6th in the league in Expected Threat, with a total of 9.23 xT. This discrepancy between their underlying numbers and actual results suggests that the team has been unlucky in front of goal, and may be due for a turnaround in the second half of the season. Midfielder Debinha has been a key contributor to the team's xT, generating 1.33 xT, while defender Kaleigh Kurtz has also shown her ability to create danger from the back, with 0.83 xT.
The Courage's high ranking in Expected Threat is also due in part to their strong performance in transition, where they have been able to quickly move the ball from defense to offense and create scoring opportunities. This has been a key aspect of their game, and one that they will look to continue to exploit as the season progresses. With their strong underlying numbers and talented squad, the Courage will be looking to make a push up the standings in the second half of the season.
Racing Louisville's competitive matches have been hindered by their inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, with all eight of their losses coming by a single goal. This trend suggests that the team is close to turning their fortunes around, but requires a slight improvement in their finishing.
In contrast, the Chicago Red Stars have struggled to create scoring chances, ranking last in Expected Threat with only nine points on the season. Their lack of creative threat has been evident, with the team scoring only five goals in 12 matches. Sam Staab has been a bright spot for the team, leading Chicago with 1.63 xT, which accounts for 22% of the team's total xT. Staab's performance is followed by defenders Jenna Bike and Michelle Alozie, who have generated 0.57 and 0.51 xT, respectively.
The Red Stars' defenders have been responsible for the majority of the team's threat creation, with three of the top five players in xT being defenders. However, the team has struggled to create threats from the middle and final thirds, relying heavily on Staab's contributions. The return of Mal Swanson from maternity leave is expected to provide a boost to the team's creative threat.
Meanwhile, the Boston Legacy have defied expectations, ranking 10th in Expected Threat despite sitting 14th in the standings. The team's attacking profile is characterized by a dispersed approach, with threats generated across the edges of the penalty area. Alba Caño leads the team with 1.43 xT, followed by winger Nichelle Prince and defenders Jorelyn Carabali, Bianca St. Georges, and Sammy Smith. The Legacy's ability to create danger in advanced zones has been a positive aspect of their game, and the addition of Lily Reale is expected to provide further support.
The Bay's threat profile is similar to Boston's, with Taylor Huff leading the way with 1.27 xT. The team's attacking approach is marked by dispersed and inconsistent threat creation, with a heavy emphasis on the left-hand side of the pitch. While Huff is the team's top threat creator, her volume is not elite, ranking outside the league's top 15. The team's attacking profile suggests that they are still searching for a consistent approach to creating scoring opportunities.
The Seattle Reign's attacking profile is marked by a reliance on Mondésir's creative spark, with the team struggling to generate consistent threat without her on the pitch. Huerta's contributions have been notable, but the team's overall threat creation has been hindered by their inability to find a consistent attacking rhythm. The Reign's use of the pitch is relatively balanced, with no significant bias towards either side, but they have struggled to create danger in the final third, ranking 12th in the league in this metric.
In contrast, the North Carolina Courage have been one of the most consistent teams in the league, ranking 5th in Expected Threat and sitting 3rd in the standings. The Courage's attacking approach is characterized by a strong emphasis on wing play, with Merritt Mathias and Brittany Ratcliffe leading the team in xT. The team's ability to create danger from the flanks has been a key factor in their success, with 62% of their xT coming from the left and right sides of the pitch.
The Courage's attacking profile is also marked by a strong presence in the final third, with 43% of their xT coming from this area. This is largely due to the contributions of players like Ratcliffe and Kerolin, who have been able to consistently create danger in advanced areas of the pitch. The team's use of the box has also been effective, with 21% of their xT coming from inside the penalty area. Overall, the Courage's attacking approach has been one of the most effective in the league, and they will look to continue this form as the season progresses.
Seattle's average performance in total expected threat created is reflected in their ranking of 11th with 8.91 xT. However, their threat creation from the defensive and middle thirds is more impressive, ranking 7th. In contrast, their threat creation in the final third is 10th, indicating a need for improvement in this area. The team's left-sided bias is evident, with 47% of their threat coming from this side, while the center and right sides contribute 11% and 42%, respectively.
Despite this, the heatmap reveals that Seattle is utilizing the right-hand side of the pitch more effectively than other teams, largely due to the consistent threat posed by Huerta and the creative influence of Mondésir when she plays. Notably, Seattle is the only team where their top player in xT does not regularly start, and two of their top five players in this metric do not start regularly. Mondésir has only started half of the Reign's games, while Adames has started just five, highlighting the need for the team to play these dangerous players more frequently to create more scoring opportunities.
In contrast, the Denver Summit has had a promising start to the season, sitting ninth in the table and 12th in Expected Threat. Their attacking profile bears similarities to Bay FC, with a significant proportion of their threat originating from the left corner of the penalty area. The linkup between left-back Carson Pickett and winger Yazmeen Ryan has been a key factor, generating half of the team's expected threat from the left. However, it is right back Janine Sonis who leads the team in xT, with 1.49, and ranks 11th overall in the league.
The Summit's threat creation heatmap is notable for the impact of Sonis, with the team ranking in the upper quarter of teams in threat created on the right wing. Despite splitting time with Sonis and Pickett at fullback, Ayo Oke has generated 0.68 xT, ranking fourth on the team, while center back Eva Gaetino rounds out the top five with 0.54 xT. The team's attacking output is shaped by strong fullback play on both sides and contributions from deeper positions.
Moving on to teams currently in playoff position, Orlando is the first, sitting eighth in the table and seventh in Expected Threat created. The team generates a significant proportion of their attacking threat down the right goal line, heavily influenced by the presence of Barbra Banda. Without Banda, Orlando's attacking profile changes significantly, losing not only her goal-scoring ability but also her capacity to create danger.
Ally Lemos, a defensive midfielder, has excelled at using deep spaces to generate threat through ball progression, with 1.48 xT generated so far. The
The Courage stands out as a team that excels in both progression and penetration, ranking fifth in threat created from the middle third and final third. Notably, they show a clear preference for the left side, where Matsukubo and Sanchez operate. The team has been effective in the "cutback zones" inside the penalty area, but not quite in the six-yard box, which is a promising area to create scoring opportunities.
In contrast, the Kansas City Current have made a significant turnaround, climbing to sixth place after a slow start with only three points from their first four matches. The Current now sit third in total expected threat generated at the midseason mark. Isabel Rodriguez, their fullback, leads the team with 1.99 xT, followed by Michelle Cooper, Debinha, Croix Bethune, and Ally Sentnor. The team's top five players have generated over 1.0 xT, demonstrating their attacking depth and a multi-line structure that creates threat from both deep buildup and advanced attacking positions.
Rodriguez's ball progression and Debinha's ability to create through passing and carries have been key factors, while Bethune has also shown her creative skills. Cooper's ability to drive into the box and put the ball into dangerous areas has also been a significant contributor. With Debinha limited to only six matches in the first half of the season, the Current are expected to be even more dangerous in the second half.
The Current prefer to use the middle third for most of their threat creation, which is reflected in their seventh-place ranking in threat created in the final third. This is largely due to the presence of midfielders Debinha and Bethune, complemented by the deep-lying forward Ally Sentnor, who has since been shifted to Los Angeles. The team has a slight preference for the left side of the pitch but is using the right attacking path more effectively.
Gotham presents an interesting case, ranking among the league's top five teams in Expected Threat despite their heat map being dominated by relatively muted shades of blue. The team favors the left side of the pitch and generates a greater share of their threat from advanced areas, ranking fourth in threat generated from the middle third. This pattern aligns with Gotham's player distribution, with Jayden Shaw, Midge Purce, and Rose Lavelle leading the team in xT. Guro Reiten and rookie winger Jordynn Dudley have also made significant contributions, despite Reiten being played out of position and having only played six matches.
What sets Gotham apart is that none of their top five contributors rank among the league's top 15 individual xT creators, yet the team ranks top five overall in threat created. Multiple players have generated more than 0.8 xT, allowing the team to spread responsibility for chance creation across the
The departure of Janni Thomsen to London City presents a significant challenge for Utah, as they will need to find a way to compensate for the loss of her creative output. Despite this, the Royals' balanced attack and ability to generate threat from various areas of the pitch will be crucial in maintaining their strong form. The team's distribution of threat creation across different zones is a testament to their versatility and depth, with players like Lacasse and Rabano capable of making an impact from different positions.
In contrast to Utah's balanced approach, the OL Reign have struggled to find consistency in their threat creation. They rank ninth in Expected Threat, with a total of 8.43 xT generated. The team's heat map shows a scattered distribution of threat, with no clear concentration of danger areas. This lack of focus in their attack has made it difficult for the Reign to break down opposing defenses, and they will need to find a way to create more cohesive and targeted attacks if they are to improve their standing in the league.
The Reign's top contributors in terms of xT are Megan Rapinoe, who has generated 1.23 xT, followed by Rose Lavelle's former teammate, Sofia Jakobsson, at 0.93 xT. The team's reliance on these two players to create scoring opportunities has been a double-edged sword, as while they have been effective, the lack of depth in threat creation has made the Reign vulnerable to defensive strategies that focus on neutralizing their key players. As the season progresses, the Reign will need to find ways to distribute their threat creation more evenly and develop a more nuanced attacking strategy if they are to compete with the top teams in the league.
The Royals use both sides of the pitch equally as well, with 41% of threat generated from the right, 40% of threat generated from the left. Now, turning to the league leaders in Expected Threat and the standings, San Diego, the statistics reveal a formidable attacking force. Kenza Dali leads the league with 2.42 Expected Threat, followed by Dudinha at 1.57. The loss of Dudinha to a season-ending injury is a significant blow, as she accounts for 15% of the Wave's total output and ranks fifth overall in the league. Other key contributors to San Diego's threat creation include Kennedy Wesley, Ludmila, and Mimi Van Zanten, with 0.90, 0.87, and 0.86 Expected Threat, respectively.
San Diego's attack is characterized by its balance, with 43% of threat generated from the right and 44% from the left. The team's ability to move the ball effectively through the thirds and into the penalty area has been a key factor in their success, both in terms of their league position and their ranking in Expected Threat. This balanced approach is a common trait among the top teams, with San Diego, Utah, and KC all creating danger from multiple zones.
In conclusion, the analysis highlights the importance of a balanced attack in creating threat and achieving success in the league. However, it is also important to acknowledge the limitations of this model-based analysis. The version of Expected Threat used here is derived from 2025 league-wide passing and shooting patterns and applied to 2026 data, which may not fully capture tactical evolution across seasons. Additionally, the underlying logistic regression component may underrepresent more nuanced shot contexts, while the event-based nature of Expected Threat excludes factors such as defensive pressure, body orientation, and goalkeeper positioning. The relatively small sample size of 11-13 matches at the midseason mark also hides variance unique to the 2026 season that is then regressed toward 2025 league averages. A table of the top 15 players in overall Expected Threat is provided for reference.
Moving up the standings, the North Carolina Courage have had a mixed season, currently sitting in 11th place. Despite this, they rank 6th in the league in Expected Threat, with a total of 9.23 xT. This discrepancy between their underlying numbers and actual results suggests that the team has been unlucky in front of goal, and may be due for a turnaround in the second half of the season. Midfielder Debinha has been a key contributor to the team's xT, generating 1.33 xT, while defender Kaleigh Kurtz has also shown her ability to create danger from the back, with 0.83 xT.
The Courage's high ranking in Expected Threat is also due in part to their strong performance in transition, where they have been able to quickly move the ball from defense to offense and create scoring opportunities. This has been a key aspect of their game, and one that they will look to continue to exploit as the season progresses. With their strong underlying numbers and talented squad, the Courage will be looking to make a push up the standings in the second half of the season.
Racing Louisville's competitive matches have been hindered by their inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, with all eight of their losses coming by a single goal. This trend suggests that the team is close to turning their fortunes around, but requires a slight improvement in their finishing.
In contrast, the Chicago Red Stars have struggled to create scoring chances, ranking last in Expected Threat with only nine points on the season. Their lack of creative threat has been evident, with the team scoring only five goals in 12 matches. Sam Staab has been a bright spot for the team, leading Chicago with 1.63 xT, which accounts for 22% of the team's total xT. Staab's performance is followed by defenders Jenna Bike and Michelle Alozie, who have generated 0.57 and 0.51 xT, respectively.
The Red Stars' defenders have been responsible for the majority of the team's threat creation, with three of the top five players in xT being defenders. However, the team has struggled to create threats from the middle and final thirds, relying heavily on Staab's contributions. The return of Mal Swanson from maternity leave is expected to provide a boost to the team's creative threat.
Meanwhile, the Boston Legacy have defied expectations, ranking 10th in Expected Threat despite sitting 14th in the standings. The team's attacking profile is characterized by a dispersed approach, with threats generated across the edges of the penalty area. Alba Caño leads the team with 1.43 xT, followed by winger Nichelle Prince and defenders Jorelyn Carabali, Bianca St. Georges, and Sammy Smith. The Legacy's ability to create danger in advanced zones has been a positive aspect of their game, and the addition of Lily Reale is expected to provide further support.
The Bay's threat profile is similar to Boston's, with Taylor Huff leading the way with 1.27 xT. The team's attacking approach is marked by dispersed and inconsistent threat creation, with a heavy emphasis on the left-hand side of the pitch. While Huff is the team's top threat creator, her volume is not elite, ranking outside the league's top 15. The team's attacking profile suggests that they are still searching for a consistent approach to creating scoring opportunities.
The Seattle Reign's attacking profile is marked by a reliance on Mondésir's creative spark, with the team struggling to generate consistent threat without her on the pitch. Huerta's contributions have been notable, but the team's overall threat creation has been hindered by their inability to find a consistent attacking rhythm. The Reign's use of the pitch is relatively balanced, with no significant bias towards either side, but they have struggled to create danger in the final third, ranking 12th in the league in this metric.
In contrast, the North Carolina Courage have been one of the most consistent teams in the league, ranking 5th in Expected Threat and sitting 3rd in the standings. The Courage's attacking approach is characterized by a strong emphasis on wing play, with Merritt Mathias and Brittany Ratcliffe leading the team in xT. The team's ability to create danger from the flanks has been a key factor in their success, with 62% of their xT coming from the left and right sides of the pitch.
The Courage's attacking profile is also marked by a strong presence in the final third, with 43% of their xT coming from this area. This is largely due to the contributions of players like Ratcliffe and Kerolin, who have been able to consistently create danger in advanced areas of the pitch. The team's use of the box has also been effective, with 21% of their xT coming from inside the penalty area. Overall, the Courage's attacking approach has been one of the most effective in the league, and they will look to continue this form as the season progresses.
Seattle's average performance in total expected threat created is reflected in their ranking of 11th with 8.91 xT. However, their threat creation from the defensive and middle thirds is more impressive, ranking 7th. In contrast, their threat creation in the final third is 10th, indicating a need for improvement in this area. The team's left-sided bias is evident, with 47% of their threat coming from this side, while the center and right sides contribute 11% and 42%, respectively.
Despite this, the heatmap reveals that Seattle is utilizing the right-hand side of the pitch more effectively than other teams, largely due to the consistent threat posed by Huerta and the creative influence of Mondésir when she plays. Notably, Seattle is the only team where their top player in xT does not regularly start, and two of their top five players in this metric do not start regularly. Mondésir has only started half of the Reign's games, while Adames has started just five, highlighting the need for the team to play these dangerous players more frequently to create more scoring opportunities.
In contrast, the Denver Summit has had a promising start to the season, sitting ninth in the table and 12th in Expected Threat. Their attacking profile bears similarities to Bay FC, with a significant proportion of their threat originating from the left corner of the penalty area. The linkup between left-back Carson Pickett and winger Yazmeen Ryan has been a key factor, generating half of the team's expected threat from the left. However, it is right back Janine Sonis who leads the team in xT, with 1.49, and ranks 11th overall in the league.
The Summit's threat creation heatmap is notable for the impact of Sonis, with the team ranking in the upper quarter of teams in threat created on the right wing. Despite splitting time with Sonis and Pickett at fullback, Ayo Oke has generated 0.68 xT, ranking fourth on the team, while center back Eva Gaetino rounds out the top five with 0.54 xT. The team's attacking output is shaped by strong fullback play on both sides and contributions from deeper positions.
Moving on to teams currently in playoff position, Orlando is the first, sitting eighth in the table and seventh in Expected Threat created. The team generates a significant proportion of their attacking threat down the right goal line, heavily influenced by the presence of Barbra Banda. Without Banda, Orlando's attacking profile changes significantly, losing not only her goal-scoring ability but also her capacity to create danger.
Ally Lemos, a defensive midfielder, has excelled at using deep spaces to generate threat through ball progression, with 1.48 xT generated so far. The
The Courage stands out as a team that excels in both progression and penetration, ranking fifth in threat created from the middle third and final third. Notably, they show a clear preference for the left side, where Matsukubo and Sanchez operate. The team has been effective in the "cutback zones" inside the penalty area, but not quite in the six-yard box, which is a promising area to create scoring opportunities.
In contrast, the Kansas City Current have made a significant turnaround, climbing to sixth place after a slow start with only three points from their first four matches. The Current now sit third in total expected threat generated at the midseason mark. Isabel Rodriguez, their fullback, leads the team with 1.99 xT, followed by Michelle Cooper, Debinha, Croix Bethune, and Ally Sentnor. The team's top five players have generated over 1.0 xT, demonstrating their attacking depth and a multi-line structure that creates threat from both deep buildup and advanced attacking positions.
Rodriguez's ball progression and Debinha's ability to create through passing and carries have been key factors, while Bethune has also shown her creative skills. Cooper's ability to drive into the box and put the ball into dangerous areas has also been a significant contributor. With Debinha limited to only six matches in the first half of the season, the Current are expected to be even more dangerous in the second half.
The Current prefer to use the middle third for most of their threat creation, which is reflected in their seventh-place ranking in threat created in the final third. This is largely due to the presence of midfielders Debinha and Bethune, complemented by the deep-lying forward Ally Sentnor, who has since been shifted to Los Angeles. The team has a slight preference for the left side of the pitch but is using the right attacking path more effectively.
Gotham presents an interesting case, ranking among the league's top five teams in Expected Threat despite their heat map being dominated by relatively muted shades of blue. The team favors the left side of the pitch and generates a greater share of their threat from advanced areas, ranking fourth in threat generated from the middle third. This pattern aligns with Gotham's player distribution, with Jayden Shaw, Midge Purce, and Rose Lavelle leading the team in xT. Guro Reiten and rookie winger Jordynn Dudley have also made significant contributions, despite Reiten being played out of position and having only played six matches.
What sets Gotham apart is that none of their top five contributors rank among the league's top 15 individual xT creators, yet the team ranks top five overall in threat created. Multiple players have generated more than 0.8 xT, allowing the team to spread responsibility for chance creation across the
The departure of Janni Thomsen to London City presents a significant challenge for Utah, as they will need to find a way to compensate for the loss of her creative output. Despite this, the Royals' balanced attack and ability to generate threat from various areas of the pitch will be crucial in maintaining their strong form. The team's distribution of threat creation across different zones is a testament to their versatility and depth, with players like Lacasse and Rabano capable of making an impact from different positions.
In contrast to Utah's balanced approach, the OL Reign have struggled to find consistency in their threat creation. They rank ninth in Expected Threat, with a total of 8.43 xT generated. The team's heat map shows a scattered distribution of threat, with no clear concentration of danger areas. This lack of focus in their attack has made it difficult for the Reign to break down opposing defenses, and they will need to find a way to create more cohesive and targeted attacks if they are to improve their standing in the league.
The Reign's top contributors in terms of xT are Megan Rapinoe, who has generated 1.23 xT, followed by Rose Lavelle's former teammate, Sofia Jakobsson, at 0.93 xT. The team's reliance on these two players to create scoring opportunities has been a double-edged sword, as while they have been effective, the lack of depth in threat creation has made the Reign vulnerable to defensive strategies that focus on neutralizing their key players. As the season progresses, the Reign will need to find ways to distribute their threat creation more evenly and develop a more nuanced attacking strategy if they are to compete with the top teams in the league.
The Royals use both sides of the pitch equally as well, with 41% of threat generated from the right, 40% of threat generated from the left. Now, turning to the league leaders in Expected Threat and the standings, San Diego, the statistics reveal a formidable attacking force. Kenza Dali leads the league with 2.42 Expected Threat, followed by Dudinha at 1.57. The loss of Dudinha to a season-ending injury is a significant blow, as she accounts for 15% of the Wave's total output and ranks fifth overall in the league. Other key contributors to San Diego's threat creation include Kennedy Wesley, Ludmila, and Mimi Van Zanten, with 0.90, 0.87, and 0.86 Expected Threat, respectively.
San Diego's attack is characterized by its balance, with 43% of threat generated from the right and 44% from the left. The team's ability to move the ball effectively through the thirds and into the penalty area has been a key factor in their success, both in terms of their league position and their ranking in Expected Threat. This balanced approach is a common trait among the top teams, with San Diego, Utah, and KC all creating danger from multiple zones.
In conclusion, the analysis highlights the importance of a balanced attack in creating threat and achieving success in the league. However, it is also important to acknowledge the limitations of this model-based analysis. The version of Expected Threat used here is derived from 2025 league-wide passing and shooting patterns and applied to 2026 data, which may not fully capture tactical evolution across seasons. Additionally, the underlying logistic regression component may underrepresent more nuanced shot contexts, while the event-based nature of Expected Threat excludes factors such as defensive pressure, body orientation, and goalkeeper positioning. The relatively small sample size of 11-13 matches at the midseason mark also hides variance unique to the 2026 season that is then regressed toward 2025 league averages. A table of the top 15 players in overall Expected Threat is provided for reference.
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